This is How America Can Win In The 2020s | Ryan Daniel Moran

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In this week’s episode, Ryan and JP talk about a recent event that JP attended and an optimistic case for the future of America.


[00:00:00] JP: You’re just seeing the wave, the economic wave of COVID 19 coming through. It sucks, gas is up, eggs are up, real estate’s down, everything I don’t like. Real estate’s down, but it needed to happen too because things were just

[00:00:14] Ryan: too strong. You’re thinking about like a hangover. It’s a hangover.

[00:00:19] JP: It’s truly, it’s, it’s another phase of COVID.

[00:00:22] JP: It’s just now we’re experiencing it differently. It’s not in our bodies. It’s in our pocketbooks. It’s in our wallets. It’s in our psyche.

[00:00:32] Ryan: jp I have been wanting to talk to you about this secret society meeting that you went to. Yeah. So you were recently at, uh, an event and you, you requested that we not say the name of the event. Yeah. ’cause it actually was like a group of elites getting together.

[00:00:49] JP: Well, it, it is interesting in, was, it was in Washington dc It was a political event, but it was really cool because it was some of the top, um, congressmen, senators and kind of decision makers, um, in the [00:01:00] country.

[00:01:00] JP: Coming together to convene, um, a little bit of a State of the Union. Yeah,

[00:01:04] Ryan: but it, it was, it was people from both sides. Yes, it was. Coming together, talking about what’s happening in. Like in, in the current state of the world and also how we’re gonna solve some of our greatest challenges. Yes. And anytime you hear about this, you know, I I like to make fun of, uh, the World Economic Forum and the, the people who believe in those conspiracies, uh, because I think they’re way overblown.

[00:01:26] Ryan: But anytime you get a group of this together, you kind of get some conspiratorial vibes to it because it’s elites coming together talking about problems and how we’re gonna solve them. And I’m just curious. From your perspective, when you came back, you actually came back encouraged. Yeah. And I wanted to hear from your perspective, What you took away from this

group of people saying how we were going to solve our challenges because most of the people on YouTube, people on podcasts, it’s all doom, fear, and gloom.[00:02:00][00:02:00] Ryan: Doom, fear, and gloom? Fear, doom, and gloom right now. And you

[00:02:04] JP: came back with a different perspective. Well, I think to start with, I mean, I think if you just, if you’re watching, whatever media you watch doesn’t really matter. Everything feels very chaotic. I think the vibe is chaos. It feels like all we have in DC, and we do have real, real problems in DC.

[00:02:18] JP: I mean, we had a great conversation with Jeremy about kind of, things go back to the Civil War. But the, the idea that just partisan gridlock, um, lack of ability to make any kind of decision making, um, a lot of politicians, which are on the fringes that really wonderfully don’t qualify to be politicians.

[00:02:34] JP: They’re kind of grandstanding for whatever they’re grandstanding for. So I think what I, the big aha, I came up with Ryan was. Um, there are still a lot of grownups in the room, and it’s interesting, I think Jeremy said it, sometimes unfortunately, and then you mentioned Senator Corwin, what they’ll say in public right now for a soundbite is different than who they are, and I really, I think that actually is what I captured the essence of, that when you’re hearing the Secretary of Defense, Lloyd [00:03:00] Austin, speaking about the checkerboard of US dominance and what we need to do next, or when you hear, uh, the Speaker of the House, you know, talking about, uh, Kevin McCarthy, or.

[00:03:10] JP: Um, some even some of the newest Congress people that really are intellectual, passionate, great command of many, many issues. It just restores your faith that yes, there is a lot of chaos. There’s a lot of noise on the edges, but there’s also a lot of smart policy makers that actually have the capability to make a decision for this country.

[00:03:32] JP: And they care. But did you walk

[00:03:33] Ryan: out of this thinking that we have solutions and that there is a bright future ahead? Or did you just walk out of it feeling a little bit better about who’s making

[00:03:47] JP: decisions? Honestly, Ryan, it was a little bit more better feeling like we’ve actually have decision making.

[00:03:51] JP: We have some grownups right now running the country, um, running our military, running a lot of our departments. Um, that was a, [00:04:00] that was a

[00:04:00] Ryan: fresh perspective for me because. I, I can’t name five people in Congress I like because all of the people that we hear about are crazy and they’re intentionally crazy in order to get sound bites and

[00:04:16] JP: Twitter followers.

[00:04:17] JP: Well, and remember this all goes back, Ryan, to you have to win your primary if you’re elected. And so in primaries, as you know, it’s actually, this would be a great, we could podcast about that, but the way our electoral system works, which I’m just learning about really. The primary in each state really dictates who’s gonna ultimately, probably succeed.

[00:04:35] JP: And, and the people who vote in primaries tend to be the extreme side. Yeah. Okay. So what happens is the extreme on either side tends to get an outsource, an outsourced, uh, or an outsized, I should say, an outsized voice. And it really discourages moderates. In fact, if you look at Ted Cruz’s election, Ted Cruz lost.

[00:04:53] JP: You know, he kept losing the popular vote, but he was really appealing in the primaries because his message is very much [00:05:00] on the edge of a conservative message. So we’ve actually trained that, we’ve trained our leaders that to win the primaries, you need to be extreme with how you, what you say, whether you believe it or not, in order to kind of be able to get onto the ballot for your, ultimately for, for the mainstream election.

[00:05:16] JP: So a lot of this is a structural issue. Uh, of how the system is. So

[00:05:22] Ryan: coming back from a meeting like this, and how many people were at this, this gathering? About 2,

[00:05:27] JP: 000.

[00:05:27] Ryan: Okay. 1, 500. So 1, 500 influential, successful movers and shakers. Yeah. And there’s people from Congress on both sides there. Walking away from that, what would you say, what is, how has your opinion shifted about what’s really happening with the economy?

[00:05:46] Ryan: With decision making in DC, did you come back more optimistic and what perspective do you have about what’s happening in the economy and what might be coming policy

[00:05:56] JP: wise? Sure, well I think the first thing is that… [00:06:00] You hear them saying more and more about bipartisanship, that they actually want to work together.

[00:06:05] JP: I don’t think they’re encouraged to say that on television, but I really get the sense that they know they need each other. And that, that there’s this actually yearning for moderation, which you wouldn’t expect. It, it, it,

[00:06:15] Ryan: it’s, it’s like, uh, some people say we’re so divided and I like to say, no, we’re actually.

[00:06:20] Ryan: Craving unity more than

[00:06:22] JP: ever. I’ve even heard it from the top. You know, they don’t, they certainly don’t show on the soundbites, but I hear them saying, like,

[00:06:29] Ryan: moderation is important. Okay, you’re hearing that from both sides, from people in Congress.

[00:06:35] JP: Yes. When there’s no cameras. They may not be hearing that from Marjorie Taylor Greene or AOC.

[00:06:39] JP: You know, on both those sets, they may not be saying that, but, but the rest of the 70 percent my sense is they’re, they, they know that they need, they need to reach across the aisle. Hey, Alex, what’s the name

[00:06:50] Ryan: of that Congressman in North Carolina?

[00:06:54] JP: Mark Meadows? No, there’s

[00:06:56] Ryan: this, would you look him up? Yeah.

[00:06:58] Ryan: This felt like a Joe Rogan moment there. [00:07:00] Jamie, look up, there’s this Congressman in North Carolina. That started posting behind the scenes TikTok videos and it was so refreshing. What is it? Jack Jackson? Jeff Jackson from North Carolina. And he blew up like out of nowhere. I think people are craving for some.

[00:07:22] Ryan: Unity and some positive language around politics, but he was, he was saying he didn’t say that it was Marjorie Tory, Marjorie Taylor Greene, but he was saying that there was somebody that he literally bumped into on the house floor that he has seen in the media over and over and over again, and he immediately wrote them off.

[00:07:45] Ryan: And said, there’s absolutely no way I could ever work with this person. This person is on the extreme of the other side. But they got to talking and he said, off camera, this person had creative ideas where they had a lot of overlap where they could come together [00:08:00] and work towards their common goals. And it sounds like what you’re saying is that you saw several decision makers.

[00:08:09] Ryan: At least, talking like that, once the cameras

[00:08:12] JP: were off. Yeah. I mean, really actually pretty cordial to each other. It’s very rare to have congressmen from both sides of the aisles in the same room together. You kind of see there is a, there is actually a more cordial than you would expect.

[00:08:26] Ryan: Based on what you observed.

[00:08:28] Ryan: If you watch any news platform or read any media at all, you will hear we’re 100 percent heading for a recession, that inflation is right, I mean, Balaji is saying we’re about to have hyperinflation and Bitcoin’s going to go to a million dollars in the next 90 days, right? There’s, all the media we see is very hyper now.

[00:08:52] Ryan: So, based on what you saw and what they said when the cameras were off, What did you walk away from thinking [00:09:00] that the economy was going to look like in the

[00:09:02] JP: next 20 months? Right, I’m going to give you a bigger answer because after hearing what they say in DC, after having like looked at the economists and really thinking this through, there’s actually something really simple going on that we just haven’t thought about.

[00:09:14] JP: We went through a pandemic called Covid Ovid. 19. I heard about it. We all got sick. We wore masks, we took, you wore masks. That’s true. , some of us do masks. I’m not covered up. My, I’m not. So, you know, we wore masks. It’s joke, some people got back, whatever it is. But the point is, we all went through, we all got, you know, we all got our share of the illness.

[00:09:30] JP: I got it twice and um. And now that that’s kind of subsided, we’ve all kind of forgot, we’re all back together, we’re eating, we’re not thinking about it, no one really gets sick or no one cares, and I told you I had COVID, you’d be like, yeah, I got a flu last week too, it’s like no big deal. But what, what has stayed with us now, it’s like the physical part of the disease is over, but now the economic part of the disease is showing now.

[00:09:51] JP: Oh, that’s an interesting perspective. I actually think right now what we’re being contaminated with is the blowback of the disease. So. All the money that we put into the economy, [00:10:00] the 9 trillion we had to do, all those programs, we’re all readjusting right now. So yes, this inflation spike that we’re having is simply you added 9 trillion to the economy.

[00:10:09] JP: It’s just math. But if you listen to most economists and you really think of what’s out there, when you look at the strength of America, as far as our GDP, our product, I also, you and I talked about innovation, which is a whole other subject of like, everyone wants to look to other countries or at least These, these bricks are these other like currencies that are coming together, but you still have to look at America in innovation as still leading the world as far as, you know, chat GPT is this week.

[00:10:35] JP: And then it’s like, it’s just, we keep, we keep hitting it right. As far as, as far as owning these things. And so I think what you’re probably looking at is like a 24 month call. It might be 30 months, could be three years. It could be. 18 months. But I really think what you’re looking at is you’re just seeing the wave, the economic wave of COVID 19 coming through.

[00:10:53] JP: It sucks. Gases up, eggs are up, real estate’s down, everything I don’t like, [00:11:00] real estate’s down, but it needed to happen too, because things were just. Too strong.

[00:11:04] Ryan: So it’s like you’re thinking about like a hangover.

[00:11:06] JP: It’s a hangover. It’s truly, it’s, it’s another phase of COVID. It’s just now we’re experiencing it differently.

[00:11:13] JP: It’s not in our bodies. It’s in our pocketbooks. It’s in our wallets. It’s in our psyche. And in some ways it sucks. Like I said, it really sucks. Nobody likes when the party’s over and like you got to pay the bills and things are expensive and there’s uncertainty at the same time. Remember You can’t, you can’t just continue having equities go up like stocks and real estate and oil.

[00:11:32] JP: Like these things do have to balance out. And we had a wild ride. I mean, everyone thought that COVID would finally like adjust the prices, but when you had 9 trillion, it never adjusted. We

[00:11:43] Ryan: should have had. Significant recession. We should. And we did it.

[00:11:48] JP: We stayed it off for three years. And guess what? We are theoretically already in a recession, Ryan, right now.

[00:11:52] JP: Yeah. Yeah. Let’s just say it like we are. Recessions don’t have to be scary. It just, you know, it is what it is. But the point is, I think that most [00:12:00] indicators that I’m seeing, I don’t think this is a depression. I don’t think this is like, it could, it could be, you know, I, I can’t say like, it’s not going to be anything.

[00:12:10] JP: Interest rates, they affect a lot of things, including, you know, real estate significantly. But I think if you look at America, if you start to look at the forward curve, like the government projections of the next 10 years, interest rates should be, may not be as low as it was in the go go years of the 2000s, but we expect like sub five.

[00:12:29] JP: If you look at GDP, not as strong as it was in the go go, in the go go 10 years ago, but also still growing. If you look at employment, like everything is still positive for America. And so it may not be as crazy as it was. I’m sorry for anyone who, anyone who didn’t get a chance to participate in the last 10 years.

[00:12:48] JP: It was a blast. It was a party. It was Woodstock burning me. I wish you were there. But, there’s going to be Burning Man Jr. and it will still be fine. And even

[00:12:58] Ryan: if our [00:13:00] growth is halved, you know, you would have people on the right, unless we have a Republican president next round, you’d have whoever is not in power saying like, growth was so much stronger under this president or this leader.

[00:13:13] Ryan: But if growth is cut in half, we’re

[00:13:16] JP: still growing. We are still growing.

[00:13:18] Ryan: Whereas, most people are predicting. A significant recession, or a depression, a major slowdown, mass unemployment because of both

innovation and economic slowdown. And the more I dive into the data, and the more that I dive into what’s really happening, my fear actually gets less and less.

[00:13:41] Ryan: And it sounds like… The rhetoric that you heard and the data that they were sharing matched that, that much more like, yes, it seems like there’s going to be a slowdown, but a slowdown from a crazy run up is the hangover after a party where like, it’s not fun, but [00:14:00] not a major disaster that you can’t get through.

[00:14:02] JP: I mean, one thing I think is important, though, is that what makes America so attractive to the world is our rule of law. So I would say, no matter what, on any side of the party, anything that threatens rule of law can threaten our economy. We, as a country, we keep continuing to show that all of our checks and balances, the framers did, even through scary times.

[00:14:26] JP: And with that, I think that we’re gonna wrap up today. And I hope you have a great day. I think that’s it. That was awesome. Bye. Bye. Everyone’s checking each other, it’s a little too much, but at the same time, the, the fact that we get to check and that like, yeah, in some countries you just go to jail for even questioning.

[00:14:54] JP: So it may seem like chaos, it may seem crazy, and I think that if you look at, um, China [00:15:00] or Russia, they would say, if you look at America, this is why we look so dysfunctional. Like how chaotic their system is. But part of the chaos is the beauty. What is your

[00:15:12] Ryan: take on BRICS and the idea that the dollar could be losing its reserve status if these countries come together and unite to trade in their own local currencies instead of the U.

[00:15:28] Ryan: S. dollar? Yeah.

[00:15:30] JP: I mean, I bet you half the audience or a quarter have seen the Ray Dalio, the recent Ray Dalio, which is… It’s over for America. This kingdom is down. And he makes some really compelling points. There’s a history, there’s a cadence. Um, certainly the dollar, if you keep printing it and treating it the way they are, you know, you, I mean, you certainly can lose the dominance.

[00:15:49] JP: And remember, it seems like the title of, you know, Superbowl champ does change. So if it’s America, then it’s Britain, then it’s China, like. It does, it does change over. I was just thinking though, like the [00:16:00] one thing that we don’t, what’s my, that might be different in this round than it was

in the 14th century with the Dutch was what I know he likes to talk about is innovation.

[00:16:08] JP: Cause remember for 300 years, it really wasn’t much innovation. I mean, then there was like, you know, until like the 17, 1800s, not much happened, but a lot of, if you look at the 1800s to now, like. This exponential growth, like every 10 years, there’s the internet. And then there’s, of course, there’s like the internet, then there was like, you know, we’re like the websites.

[00:16:25] JP: And then there’s like, it just keeps going and going and going social. And then it’s now it’s artificial intelligence and communication. And so I think the one thing that’s really important to think about is I don’t know the, no one knows the answer to that, but, but if innovation drives growth. In the new economies and we’re innovating exponentially, then which countries are going to win in innovation?

[00:16:47] JP: And I’d argue, Ryan, the countries that are going to win at innovation are the countries. That’s, this is, I think where if the world has two thoughts of Western liberalism, which is individual freedom over government versus like maybe going more Communists or [00:17:00] deep socialists, which is master plan works better.

[00:17:03] JP: Let’s have a 20, 30 year leader. Let’s have a master plan. We want order for people. It’s a relief. I don’t have to think too much. My government has me covered versus. Western liberalism looks chaotic. It looks messy. It’s true. Like it’s hard to create a policy when every four years there’s a new one. Hold on.

[00:17:19] Ryan: I’m losing. I’m losing the plot.

[00:17:21] JP: I’m sorry. So, so the, so the plot basically is you’ve got two different thoughts in the world, Western liberalism versus like a.

[00:17:29] Ryan: And if there’s a massive amount of innovation, it’s the free societies that will benefit. Every time.

[00:17:34] JP: What we’re showing statistically, forget about whether you like America or don’t like America, if you look at where productivity and innovation comes from, it tends to come from Western liberal governments, simply because when people have freedom.

[00:17:46] JP: And they’ve got rule of law, then they’re motivated to innovate. Like, look what happened to Jack Ma in China. He’s all of a sudden, he’s

reappeared after a year and a half. That’s a great point, Jimmy. Like that company, like you don’t know if you’ve got a company or not. Like, why would you be motivated in China [00:18:00] as much as you would in the U.

[00:18:01] JP: S. to actually, if you blow it up, can you keep it or will the government take it? Yeah, that, that is,

[00:18:04] Ryan: that is actually a really great point. I mean, recent news, Alibaba is being broken up into, I think, 10 different companies. Right. So, so that, that, That’s a mic drop right there. So basically you’re saying that because we are on the cusp of so much innovation that free societies, whether it, the dollar is the reserve currency or not, innovation helps.

[00:18:33] Ryan: And so we’re in a strong position.

[00:18:35] JP: I think so. Cause you’re not Brexit, so look, great. You and I, like, China’s great at China, Russia, Brazil. China, Russia’s got not much. What is Russia? What is Russia’s product? It’s vodka and oil. China’s great at copying. What does Brazil really produce? What, what do you have in your house from Brazil?

[00:18:53] JP: Or, so, or, or India. JP’s

[00:18:56] Ryan: the liberal on the show.

[00:18:58] JP: I mean, I [00:19:00] mean, so, so I’m just saying like. I’m not laughing at like, like, sure you can have, like, everyone’s going to try to challenge the dollar. But remember the dollar is also the euro, like, I know it’s different, but like you still got the euro. I mean, it could just be that, that it literally, I could see it becoming two currencies where it becomes literally like these two different ways of thinking about how humanity should be governed.

[00:19:21] JP: Well, we’ll each align in alignment. The concern

[00:19:25] Ryan: for a lot of people is that. This will usher in a period of hyperinflation for the United States if the dollar is no longer being used and purchased by these developing countries, a concern that I think is overblown, but that’s the core concern with a lot of people.

[00:19:47] Ryan: And what I’m kind of hearing you say is that regardless of what these other countries do, the innovation that happens here Makes us the place that people want to do business, which will [00:20:00] basically create a rising tide for everyone that lives in free companies. Think about

[00:20:03] JP: this, this is exactly what I’m saying, Ryan.

[00:20:05] JP: Think about in the year 2000, do you remember it was the first time like in ages that America had wiped out its deficit and like… Three years. Yeah. It was under the Clinton administration, but do you know why they, do you remember why we were able to get rid of a crazy deficit? Yes, because we had a, we had a huge economic boom.

[00:20:20] JP: And how do you have huge economic booms? You create new industries. Western Europe even does it. Great point. Right. Western Europe, Western Europe doesn’t do that as good as America, because again, we’re like the young teenager. We’re like the young spread lead teenager. We’re highly insecure. We’re like, we’re insecure.

[00:20:36] JP: We get like, we, we, we, we tend to think the worst is in front of us. Like that’s part of being an insecure teenager, but also part of the good news. And I say we’re young, we’re young because our history is young. We’re 200 years old. We’re not, we don’t have a thousand years of legacies and slaughter and depression.

[00:20:51] JP: So I think that in a way we innovate because. That, that youthfulness is good and bad. I think we, I think we over analyze and think that, you [00:21:00] know, it’s over. We’ve, yeah, we don’t always see our greatness because we’re immature, but we also, I think, tend to be more creative because we see less barriers of like saying, why not try to do this?

[00:21:10] JP: It’s more that true. Entrepreneurism can come out with that, you know, open, you know, government, you know, without having too much government regulation that keeps you. And that’s also just a psyche and a mindset, I think, based on the history of our country. We have a

[00:21:24] Ryan: mutual friend that is perpetually concerned that.

[00:21:28] Ryan: America’s about to end, that the world’s about to end, that the economy is about to melt, that it’s just perpetually worried about this. And make some great points and arguments about why that’s the case is influential among our peers. These that start preparing for a situation like that. What would you say to someone who has that perspective right now?

[00:21:55] Ryan: Now that you have, you’ve seen multiple economic booms and [00:22:00] busts, you’ve been an entrepreneur and investor for several decades, you’re plugged in with influential people in DC. What would you say

based on the perspective you have to the person who has that type of a concern right now?

[00:22:18] JP: I mean, you have to weigh your own facts.

[00:22:21] JP: I mean, there’s, there’s, there’s no proof either way. I always, my, my, my usual comment is that man plans and God laughs, right? So no matter what we think, things can always change, right? But if I just look at… Kind of, um, if you’re really kind of paying attention, which I know you are to like what America is creating right now in every field, if you look at biotech, if you look at, you know, it’s not just jet GBT, if you look at almost including real estate, if you look at what we’re up to here in North America, now Mexico is about to go through a huge boom as well.

[00:22:52] JP: I, I just, I guess that’s where it feels my optimism. Um, so yes, we have real problems. Yes, we’ve printed too much money, but you know, [00:23:00] one more boom and we’re like, again, there’s going to be so much disruption coming as we know, there’ll be a lot of jobs that will be lost. I think there’s going to be tons of jobs that are created.

[00:23:08] JP: I think America is going to get an outsized proportion of those wins because they’re going to come from America. So if you believe in made in America and that it’s going to be innovated in America, I just don’t see. I just don’t see how you can have that point of view, especially if you’re willing to really what John Kennedy says, just, you know, not ask what you can do for others, ask, you know, for your country.

[00:23:28] JP: There are some great things. I want to, that’s, I think

[00:23:31] Ryan: that’s a really important point because I’ve noticed in my own life that when I’m selfish, I’m scared and when I’m scared, I get selfish. And it becomes a downward spiral in that sense. So I think there’s, you hit on that point very quickly, but that’s dripping with wisdom.

[00:23:51] Ryan: If you’re scared, find ways to give. If you’re, if you’re concerned, get plugged in in the service of others. That’s where opportunity comes from.

[00:23:58] JP: And by the way, right now I [00:24:00] can tell you, I just had lunch with someone who’s launching a whole campaign right now over, um, keeping, discouraging people. I wont say too much, were basically discouraging candidates to extreme primaries to second guess to punish them, they tried to encourage more moderate candidates through economics to participate in the

primaries, bipartisan and so I can tell you five organizations right now that are all working towards creating more moderate outcomes for America.

[00:24:31] JP: Um, there’s now, there’s now non partisan newsletters coming out, they’re coming out of the woodwork. People are tired of this. Um, there’s a whole organization about trying to get people to come across the aisle, encouraging people with financial, like politicians with financial benefits and pushing them to lobby.

[00:24:47] JP: To, to meet each other and to moderate and to, and to go across the aisle to, to get real shit done. So it’s there. If you really want to your point, if you want to get out of like what you’re worried about and you actually want to say, I want to vote [00:25:00] for the solution with my time or money, there are organizations and there’s already grassroots and even larger organizations.

[00:25:06] JP: That are already looking to solve this problem because they think that, you know, America, there’s nowhere else I want to go. I don’t know about you. I’m not looking to move anywhere. I got, you know, all these emails about, you know, the golden passports and all these third passports. I have no judgment. If you want a second passport, yeah, maybe it’s a good idea.

[00:25:22] JP: But the, the panic of, oh my God, I gotta move outta here. Like, I’m not rushing to get a passport. Um, anything can happen but I, there’s nowhere I wanna be in. I wanna be in America. So,

[00:25:32] Ryan: based on all of that, what do you think happens economically? And I’m asking specifically because every other media feed, that I see at least, has some new reason why it’s all going to collapse.

[00:25:48] Ryan: It’s the, it’s the banking crisis, it’s hyperinflation. It’s ChatGPT. It’s some, for some reason, it’s all going to fall [00:26:00] apart. What I have sort of heard you say is that that is part of the hangover from COVID. It’s like the, the, the physical disease. We’re now dealing with the economic and the mental disease of it all.

[00:26:13] Ryan: So if we put on our rational hats for a second, what do you think happens over the next 24 to 36 months economically? Things

[00:26:22] JP: get worse for the next 12 to 24 months. Prices continue to go up. It’s going to feel really crappy. There’s going to be job layoffs. Um, how, how

[00:26:30] Ryan: much, like how bad? What does that look like?

[00:26:33] Ryan: Because, because if you just said that based on the context of what I hear everybody else saying,

[00:26:40] JP: that sounds pretty bad. Well, I guess you have to, you have to look at it. Like, I can’t give you, you, you numbers, but you know, I, I think it’s, I think we’re, we’re paying for the party. And then this is part of the virus phase.

[00:26:49] JP: It’s kind of like saying, how bad is COVID going to be in the next release of COVID? I don’t know in the next version of how bad it’s going to be. It’s going to be something. But then if you already look at the indicators and you look at like the growth going [00:27:00] forward and we’re like. If you look at GDP, if you look at employment projections, if you look at kind of what’s coming down the pipeline, I think we quickly recover.

[00:27:08] JP: I think this recession is a mild recession, if I was to call it. Okay.

[00:27:12] Ryan: So now I think we’re really getting to the meat of it. Because

[00:27:17] JP: That doesn’t mean there can’t be a lot of pain during that time, but I think it’s short and fairly mild.

[00:27:24] Ryan: I know you don’t like to guess, but I want you to give me as clear a picture as you think you can put together on this.

[00:27:34] Ryan: How bad of a recession is that? And it’s obviously encouraging. To hear that from your perspective, it would be a short one, I happen to agree with that. But, can you paint a picture of, what does this look like compared to 2008 or 2020? What, what, what, if you

[00:27:53] JP: had to guess, what are we looking like? I hate to go back and compare, that’s what we want to do as humans, I don’t want to go back [00:28:00] to another one.

[00:28:01] JP: I think it really depends who you are, I think it depends where you are at socio economically. Obviously, if you’re working, you know, if you’re working blue collar. You know, month to month and your bills are going up and your, you know, wages aren’t keeping up with inflation. It’s going to hurt for a while.

[00:28:14] JP: It’s really going to hurt. Like, hopefully you have some savings. So

[00:28:17] Ryan: you see inflation continuing to linger even though it’s coming down and interest rates are at 5%?

[00:28:24] JP: I think it’s going to take, I think it’s going to take a little bit of time. If you look, it just takes a minute for indicators to catch up.

[00:28:29] JP: I think it’s going to take 12, 18, 24 months for us to actually, you added 9 trillion to the economy. It’s going to take a minute to kind of like. So, so, so it, it’s not, that’s gonna up to 20%, but it could be at seven or six point half or five. Like it could linger for a, it’s at what, five point a half

[00:28:45] Ryan: right now?

[00:28:46] Ryan: What’s that? The last 12 months? Five point a half percent.

[00:28:50] JP: The six point half percent. Uh, well, right now you’re have the lending, the which, which indicator? The, the C-P-I-C-P-I. [00:29:00] I thought it was at seven. Okay. Yeah,

[00:29:02] Ryan: I think it’s six and a half or seven, somewhere in there. So you think it will. I mean, the Federal Reserve says we think we have a control, we have…

[00:29:09] Ryan: We’ve, we’ve clamped down on this and that it’s coming down and it seems to be doing that very slowly. Exactly. But, but what you’re seeing, what you think is that it will continue to sort of flutter down very slow. You’re showing me a graph that you got from your super secret conspiracy meeting that was a projection of it getting down to about 2.

[00:29:30] Ryan: 9, but it would take about 18 months. Am I remembering that correctly? So, so you think it’s. That’s still higher than we want, but the worst is

[00:29:38] JP: over. Yeah, and then if you kind of, if you look at kind of the tenure going forward after we get through this period. It’s actually, it’s a healthy economy for America.

[00:29:48] JP: It’s very lucky. Remember, we just went through 11 years of prosperity. And we, I know as human beings, we hate pain. We just have to flush out the cycle a little bit. I hate pain. Who wants to go through

[00:29:58] Ryan: this? This is, here’s the [00:30:00] confusion you see on my face. The reason I’m being pedantic and asking these questions is because…

[00:30:04] Ryan: Because my emotional experience to what you’re saying is very different than the, the logical understanding. Here, here, here’s what I mean. I had so much fear and anxiety. I mean, you and I both, both had COVID really bad and, and, and I had, it put me into an anxiety and depression spiral that was just terrible, right?

[00:30:22] Ryan: I’m better now. But I went through such a negative, fear based cycle for like a year that I was… Really afraid it was going to get

[00:30:32] JP: bad, like get really bad.

[00:30:35] Ryan: And so where I’m sitting on the other side of that, emotionally I’m like… Oh, so what you’re saying is the worst is behind us, and I’m like, let’s start building again.

[00:30:44] Ryan: Let’s go. But the way that you’re saying it is comparatively, it still sucks compared to the run up, right? And that is a recession, but the worst may be behind us. So let’s get back to work and build for the next three to five years. That’s why [00:31:00] you’re seeing me confused, because I’m actually hearing this as really good news, even though it might look like lingering pain.

[00:31:06] Ryan: I’m seeing this, we’ve been in economic pain for the last 18 months. Right. So that’s, that’s the like, the dichotomy that you’re seeing on my

[00:31:14] JP: face right now. I think both are true. I think it’s going to be bad. There’s going to be, there’s still more pain ahead of us. It’s not, but the good news is some countries go into like Japan, you go into negative interest rates, you go into these 10 funks.

[00:31:29] JP: I don’t think America is going into a 10 or 20 year funk. I think we have some pain ahead of us. Uh, I am concerned like you guys are real estate owner. Like I know prices are adjusting. Interest rates really affect my market. I wish. I, I wish it would go a little, I’m hoping it will go a little faster, this adjustment that you’re talking about interest rates.

[00:31:46] JP: It may or may not, but the point I think the, the macro, the takeaway that I believe just listening and thinking this through is that we’re not in a 10 or 20 year funk. This isn’t a depression, but it is. You know, it’s, it’s a, it’s a recession, [00:32:00] 24, 36 months. It’s going to be uncomfortable, but it’s America and we will snap out of it and we will be in a, you know, in a, in a really healthy, much healthier economy.

[00:32:10] JP: Again, I won’t compare it. It’s hard to go backwards, but we’ll be in a caught it. I mean, guess what’s going to happen for a lot of entrepreneurs, ton of opportunity. Prices will reset. There’ll be disruptions. Some companies that probably should have died that were too fat are finally going to die because they needed to, which is what capitalism needs to do.

[00:32:27] JP: So that the new sprouts can come up and disrupt and clean up inefficiencies, you know, mispricing, all those things that actually need to happen that aren’t fun are going to happen. Where do you see, and I’m just, does that help? I don’t know if that helps or not. It

[00:32:40] Ryan: does. Yeah. But, but I’m curious on coming back from this meeting that was in DC and had, you know, political, politically influential people there.

[00:32:52] Ryan: Did debt come up, meaning government debt? As, as we’re going into multi trillion dollar [00:33:00] deficits, my goodness, and, but that is like fine, I guess, when you have 0 percent

[00:33:05] JP: interest rates.

[00:33:06] Ryan: Does, is there a concern in your view about now the fact that we’re running these deficits at 32 trillion dollars in debt and now we have 5 percent interest rates?

[00:33:18] Ryan: Which means that we may have a trillion dollars in deficit just to pay ourselves back. Right. So does that influence your thesis at all? What do you make of that?

[00:33:29] JP: There was no one in D. C. who thought that was a good thing, by the way. Okay. I think you’ve got bipartisan concern about that. You know, and you think about it, like everyone’s trying, you know, maybe they say they were trying in Congress, like, you know, they’re trying to like stop things from happening because their heart’s in the right place.

[00:33:44] JP: It’s like, let’s stop rolling up this clock. But it really would take, um, real disappointment. I don’t know if the, if the Congress has it or not, uh, obviously they don’t. Yeah. You know, I think that what I thought was interesting too, is that when you hear the Secretary of [00:34:00] Defense, Lloyd Austin, with China and Russia, The military industrial complex has a very compelling case as to why they need to spend even more money.

[00:34:07] JP: Now they need to create more technology, more planes, more aircraft carriers, new nuclear bombs. Like they’re there. Unfortunately, like this is a time when you see threats like Ukraine, it stimulates. The US military even spend more. So I don’t know Ryan about like, if the government really has any discipline to bring it down or not.

[00:34:27] JP: I think my point is that once again, I’m leaning to private enterprise that, that if we continue to grow our GDP at an out, GDP at an outbase, we may out, way outpace what we think it’s going to be. Which, if our taxation is correct and everything is done, it floats a lot of boats from the mistakes that governments

[00:34:46] Ryan: can make.

[00:34:46] Ryan: So I was listening to a podcast with Kathy Wood recently and basically her overall thesis is that we’re on the cusp of so much growth and so much [00:35:00] innovation. That that will, it will overcome a lot of the challenges that we’re facing right now. And it sounds like you’re saying the same thing from a different perspective.

[00:35:11] Ryan: It’s like, it’s not that higher interest rates don’t hurt. It’s not that deficit spending isn’t bad. It’s not that we don’t have problems, it’s that we’re also in a very interesting position to grow at unprecedented rates. Correct. To get through all of it, to lead,

[00:35:32] JP: to lead the world economy once again. So they, they can, you can do bricks, you can have all these alliances, but what is the fuel behind the currency?

[00:35:38] Ryan: Man, I’m, so that’s, that’s a beautiful point because. It’s, it’s a, it’s a both and answer where it’s like, yes, there are these challenges. Yes, these, these things are true and we’re probably going to grow right through it. And it’s a matter of where you put your attention. Like if you’re putting your attention on these problems, [00:36:00] you’re going to be like me 18 months ago where you’re just anxious all the time.

[00:36:05] Ryan: But if you put your attention on where there’s growth. I think, I think it’s going to be a really good time. I mean, I, for my position on the next three years is it’s the accumulation period. This is, this is where

[00:36:18] JP: it’s time for me to place my chips. I’m, I’m, I, you know, Ryan, I just hired two new employees, as you know, like you’re here.

[00:36:24] JP: I am a real estate company and not, not to say I don’t have real like things I need to watch. I got to watch the mothership. I’ve got real things to manage, real pressure. And here I am hiring and expanding right now because I have that much belief in the next real estate cycle. Where I’m actually like.

[00:36:38] JP: Again, it’s like two things at once. I’m concerned over here and it’s like, thank God we’re finally getting like a cycle change to try to like reprice things where it actually like the fun. We’ve been out of whack on fundamentals. So they get back into like some fundamentals. Is really my hope. It’s healthy.

[00:36:55] JP: It’s healthy for everyone that we go back to fundamentals.

[00:36:57] Ryan: I’m currently reading The Psychology of [00:37:00] Money. Have you read this book? Great book. And one of the early chapters is called, I think it’s called, it’s never as good or as bad as it seems. And, and here I am on this side of the table being like, tell me how bad it’s going to be.

[00:37:14] Ryan: I do pay attention to the media. I do. And so I want to know. And the answer is. It’s not as bad as it seems. And then on the other side, if you listen, all this growth and all, Bitcoin’s going to a million, it’s not as good as it seems either. The truth is actually a much more reasonable approach. So to wrap this up, JP…

[00:37:36] Ryan: Where, now, like, knowing what you know and who you know, where would, where are you watching to place bets? Obviously you’re a real estate guy, but what’s, what else is interesting to you in terms of placing some strategic bets? To participate in the growth of the next

[00:37:56] JP: run. Well, I’ll just, let me talk to real estate first, and then we can go to some other.[00:38:00][00:38:00] JP: So in real estate, uh, if you look at just supply and demand over the next 10 years in America, I think you’re looking at multifamily assets, apartments, housing, great shortage. It’s, we just can’t fix the shortage. It’s almost the 6 million supply demand imbalance that’s going to need to be looked at. Uh, industrial, uh, we are an online economy.

[00:38:18] JP: You know anything about internet? Marketing or any, uh, online commerce. Um, I know a thing or two. You might know a thing I’ve heard. So obviously this idea of more warehouses, the idea of storing things at, uh, more on time delivery, the last mile, these are gonna create more. Oh, that’s interesting. More industrial opportunities.

[00:38:32] JP: Um, retail people still want to touch things. They actually still want to commune, so retail’s not gonna die. I think retail still has a place in, in commerce, it just, it’s going to take a different place. Um, I think those are like the bright spots within commercial real estate over the next, you know, call it the next five to ten years, kind of long term.

[00:38:52] JP: Um, you know, oil and gas is still going to be fairly strong. You know, I did not expect you to say that. Well, I’m not saying like, [00:39:00][00:39:00] Ryan: I actually… We both drive electric cars for anybody who’s…

[00:39:03] JP: We do, but the reality is it’s going to be a transition that’s going to take some time. I’m all for the transition if everyone would just be reasonable about it.

[00:39:12] JP: Uh, we can’t solve it all tomorrow. We’re not going to solar tomorrow. It’ll be slow. But in the meanwhile, energy is really, really important. Unfortunately, we need to consume more and more of it. All these… Server farms and everything that we’re doing, just, we are consuming, I actually, I was having lunch last week with a really successful, hyper successful entrepreneur who actually builds these power centers and data centers for Apple and Microsoft, and he says the amount of power, like, is…

[00:39:39] JP: It’s not him just being the developer of the building. He says that the key now is getting so much power to the building because these large companies require more and more and more power because imagine like whatever it takes, you know, all the servers and everything it takes to run these things are getting increasingly complex.

[00:39:56] JP: And so the key right now is not building the real estate or the industrial thing. It’s [00:40:00] actually Finding the power and getting it there in a way. And then you get, you’re thinking of things, if there’s a power outage, having redundant power and solar power, like it’s a really exciting time, but energy is going to be a really, really important commodity.

[00:40:11] JP: And there’s going to be some great opportunities, I believe. And also clean energy alternatives that will no longer be woo woo, but ways to make a ton of money. Um, by picking the right companies, I’ll start as things transition. So I think that’s super, super interesting. I think your area, I think that there’s going to continue to be just like this for small business entrepreneurs that want to build like big companies.

[00:40:33] JP: I just think there’s going to be so much disruption in so many areas where like you, you look at like a chat GPT and you and I could talk about a thousand different ideas. Yeah. Bounce off chat GPT. I mean. And I did more because you

[00:40:45] Ryan: just asked chat GPT to come up with a thousand ideas for chat

[00:40:48] JP: GPT. I’m going to Portugal for a week.

[00:40:50] JP: So I just thought I’d ask chat GPT to come up with my itinerary. Oh wow. Gluten free food. I like food marts. I gave it everything and I did a remarkably good job for me of [00:41:00] telling me, but you know what it still can’t do yet? It can’t tell me, it can’t book my airlines. It can’t book my hotels for me. It can’t really coordinate like.

[00:41:08] JP: You know, like on a computer, like, like, do I really want to do this all day? Like I have nuances. I still, in other words, I’m still working with a travel agent, even though chat GPT planned it out because there’s nuances like that. I like better. I’d rather fly into this airport. I’d rather do this. I’d rather, and some days you can get all this done.

[00:41:26] JP: What’s this restaurant like, is this really worth my time? Like you’ve been on this trip. Is this really worth my time to go take all day and go see the wine country in Porto, which, and again, some of it data can do, but sometimes there’s still a human being things. I would think like, just as an example, potentially someone comes up with a new kind of travel, you know, get rid of the entire travel agency, disrupt an old agency and be the

[00:41:49] Ryan: adjunct.

[00:41:49] Ryan: There’s kind of like apps were for iOS. You see opportunities to develop. Platforms and technologies that are built off the back of chat GPT.

[00:41:59] JP: [00:42:00] Oh, no, no, no, because you still need, I, not on everything. Some things are really efficient, but even when I’ve been doing my marketing on chat GPT or writing letters, it does just so much.

[00:42:09] JP: But I, I, I, I, even as it gets better and better, I, there’s a lot of times I still need a human to one up it. Yeah.

[00:42:15] Ryan: Understood. Yeah. So you’re bullish

[00:42:17] JP: long term. I am bullish long term. I, I don’t know any other way. And I, I just, I really encourage people that if you can embrace. What we have here in America.

[00:42:26] JP: Be grateful for our system. Be, be, be so grateful for free markets. Be so grateful for rule of law and look, look towards the future with inspiration. Um, I, I just think you’re going to manifest great things for, for us. And so, yes, I’m bullish. Beautiful. Yeah. All right, my man. Thanks for sharing

[00:42:44] Ryan: with me. Yeah.

[00:42:44] Ryan: Appreciate it.

[00:42:45] JP: Yep.